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Established Advisor
Lowcarbwalking
Total Posts: 322
Registered on: ‎05-31-2012

Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use


Yesterday I found that the Mayo Clinic offers an online guide for assessing risk of heart attack and shows reduction in number of heart attacks if a statin is taken or aspirin is used or both statin and aspirin are used. They say you should use the results to have a conversation with your doctor.

Three different sets of research are used to come up with risk assessments so you can try each and see what each risk assessment looks like with your numbers with and without using statins or aspirin or both to reduce the risk
the risk of heart attack.

The assessment tool also shows side effects of using medication. Overall I found this a helpful tool to help make a decision on using or not using statins.

Here is the link:
http://statindecisionaid.mayoclinic.org/index.php/site/index

I input my numbers; HDL, total cholesterol, age, smoking status, etc and come up with these results.

Based on Farmingham research my 10 year risk of having a heart attack based on 100 people like me:

8 people like me not taking a statin or aspirin will have a heart attack.
92 will not.

If a standard dose of a statin were taken:
2 people would be saved from having a heart attack.

If aspirin were taken:
2 people would be saved from having a heart attack.

So according to this taking aspirin as a heart health intervention does just as much as taking a standard dose of a statin.

Based on the UKPDS research risk factors which also asks how long you have had diabetes and what your H1c is, my risk is:

5 people like me will have a heart attack in the next 10 years.
95 people will not have a heart attack.

If a standard dose of a statin were taken:
1 person like me would be saved from having a heart attack.

If aspirin were take:
1 person like me will be saved from having a heart attack.
Ruth
T2 Diagnosed Aug 2010 with A1c of 7.7
A1c has been under 6 since Dec 2010.
Last A1c 5.1 in March 2013; fasting bg 72
Low Carb eating & daily walks
Metformin 500mg twice aday
Valued Contributor
marty1955
Total Posts: 7,931
Registered on: ‎05-12-2013

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use

That was interesting!  I did the UKPDS since it was recommended for diabetics.  It was 3 people  having a heart attack and 97 that will not.  That was without any intervention of statin use or aspirin which I don't use.  It only changed by 1 with the use of a regular dosage of statin.

 

Thanks for sharing!

 

Marty 

"The road to success is always under construction."
- Lily Tomlin

01/2013 - diagnosed with T2 and hypothyroidism
A1c - 7.2
04/16/2013 - A1c 6.1
07/24/2013 - A1c 5.8 (bayernow)
09/21/2013 - A1c 5.6 (bayernow)
10/10/2013 - A1c 5.7
04/30/2014 - A1c 5.5
500 mg Metformin/1 per day
Low Carb
Beginning weight - 183
08/27/2013 - 143
10/03/2013 - 141
12/05/2013 - 138
Blood Pressure 12/05/2013 - 118/60
Blood Pressure 02/2014 - 106/54 (too low, medication cut to maintenance dose)
Blood Pressure 04/29/2014 - 110/65
T2 paternal grandmother, father, two sisters, my current and my ex husband


alan_s
Total Posts: 14,374
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Registered on: ‎10-30-2009

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use

[ Edited ]

I dislike it. I did a similar statin-pushing online test ten years back. At that time I was on lipitor. It looked good for a long life.

 

I did another five years later after I quit lipitor. According to it I should not be here now.

 

I just did this one.

 

Over 10 years

31 people will have a heart attack

69 people will have no heart attack

 

According to that I have a 31% chance of not seeing the next ten years out - all because I am not on a statin and my LDL is higher than they like.

 

I believe it is flawed and skewed heavily towards statin prescription.

Cheers, Alan, Type 2, d&e metformin 2000mg, Australia.
Everything in Moderation - Except Laughter.
There is nothing I could eat I like more than my eyes.
Type 2 Diabetes - A Personal Journey (latest: It Must Be OK - It's Sugar-Free! Wrong!)
Born Under a Wandering Star (Latest: Casablanca)
Valued Contributor
marty1955
Total Posts: 7,931
Registered on: ‎05-12-2013

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use


alan_s wrote:

I dislike it. I did a similar statin-pushing online test ten years back. At that time I was on lipitor. It looked good for a long life.

 

I did another five years later after I quit lipitor. According to it I should not be here now.

 

I just did this one.

 

Over 10 years

31 people will have a heart attack

69 people will have no heart attack

 

According to that I have a 31% chance of not seeing the next ten years out - all because I am not on a statin and my LDL is higher than they like.

 

I believe it is flawed and skewed heavily towards statin prescription.


Alan I did not see a place to enter LDL?  On the one I used it asked for HDL. 

"The road to success is always under construction."
- Lily Tomlin

01/2013 - diagnosed with T2 and hypothyroidism
A1c - 7.2
04/16/2013 - A1c 6.1
07/24/2013 - A1c 5.8 (bayernow)
09/21/2013 - A1c 5.6 (bayernow)
10/10/2013 - A1c 5.7
04/30/2014 - A1c 5.5
500 mg Metformin/1 per day
Low Carb
Beginning weight - 183
08/27/2013 - 143
10/03/2013 - 141
12/05/2013 - 138
Blood Pressure 12/05/2013 - 118/60
Blood Pressure 02/2014 - 106/54 (too low, medication cut to maintenance dose)
Blood Pressure 04/29/2014 - 110/65
T2 paternal grandmother, father, two sisters, my current and my ex husband


alan_s
Total Posts: 14,374
Topics: 203
High Fives: 1,369
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Registered on: ‎10-30-2009

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use



marty1955 wrote:

alan_s wrote:

I dislike it. I did a similar statin-pushing online test ten years back. At that time I was on lipitor. It looked good for a long life.

 

I did another five years later after I quit lipitor. According to it I should not be here now.

 

I just did this one.

 

Over 10 years

31 people will have a heart attack

69 people will have no heart attack

 

According to that I have a 31% chance of not seeing the next ten years out - all because I am not on a statin and my LDL is higher than they like.

 

I believe it is flawed and skewed heavily towards statin prescription.


Alan I did not see a place to enter LDL?  On the one I used it asked for HDL. 


Sorry, I entered the total and HDL. However, my total is high because my LDL is high

Cheers, Alan, Type 2, d&e metformin 2000mg, Australia.
Everything in Moderation - Except Laughter.
There is nothing I could eat I like more than my eyes.
Type 2 Diabetes - A Personal Journey (latest: It Must Be OK - It's Sugar-Free! Wrong!)
Born Under a Wandering Star (Latest: Casablanca)
Advisor
1lainey
Total Posts: 287
Registered on: ‎01-01-2013

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use

[ Edited ]

I had some fun playing with it.

 

For example, with my untreated cholesterol numbers, 10 out of 100 could expect a heart attack.  Their risk benefit anaylsis put the risk at 5:100 in that frame with statin therapy.

 

My current numbers, on a statin, led to 2:100.  Obviously it was unchanged by "adding" statins.  I did not add aspirin.

 

These tools are nice, but like Alan said, they are weighted in one direction or another.  Any diabetes risk calculator I take says that I am very low risk--these are very keyed in on weight, and I am not over weight--so based on my experience they are not a good predictor.

 

In the end, while these may provide a baseline,  I don't think most of them are comprehensive enough to give a true picture of risk.

 

However, once again, it  is noted that in these any many other similar tools, diabetes is an independent risk factor for CVD, and a reason to approach other CVD risk factors more aggressively.

March 2014 A1C 6.0%
December 2013 A1C 6.2%
June 2013 A1C 6.0%
December 2012 FBG 142, A1C 5.3%
June 2012 FBG: 154, A1C 5.9%

No meds--normal weight, mod-carb diet, exercise
Super Advisor
powerwalker2
Total Posts: 5,399
Registered on: ‎11-02-2009

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use

This brief Mayo Clinic heart attack risk assessment  http://statindecisionaid.mayoclinic.org/index.php/statin/index seems to claim as much benefit from a daily aspirin as from a statin.  Taking both daily aspirin and a statin achieves almost the same benefit as someone without diabetes.  Did your doctor recommend daily aspirin?

Nancy ~ T2 since '98 ~ 16 yrs ~ D&E 11yrs ~ treadmill, elliptical, bike 15-20 minutes 3x/day (including evening), dumbbells/resistance training, small portions heart-healthy high-fiber/low-fat fuel/carb-counting, 500mg Glucophage XR x4, 2.5mg Glucotrol XL x6, 6000IU Vit. D/day ~ RHR 53 ~ A1cs mainly between 5.9-6.9 av. 6.5
Trusted Contributor
morrisolder
Total Posts: 10,430
Registered on: ‎11-28-2009

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use

A risk calculator necessarily focuses on factors know to be associated with higher risk. 

 

Things like higher weight, family history of diabetes, a diagnosis of prediabetes would suggest a higher risk of diabetes.

 

Things like high blood pressure, high glucose numbers, higher cholesterol  and a family history of heart disease would suggest a higher risk for heart attacks.

 

But these tools are not fortune tellers. There are plenty of overweight people who never will bet diabetes, and a smaller number of underweight people who will. Just as you may come from a family with a huge history of heart disease, and never have any heart problems yourself. 

 

The tools are based on the statistical indicators that we know of, but there are always exceptional cases--both good and bad. I for one would never claim enough knowledge to dispute the judgement of the actuaries who devise these kinds of charts...

Morris

Diagnosed Type 2, with an A1c of 11.4 in 2003; averaging a 5.0 A1c since then with diet, exercise and Glipizide XL + meds for blood pressure and cholesterol. 
A bit dated, but scroll down on this page if you want to know more ...


Trusted Contributor
maryd98
Total Posts: 5,307
Registered on: ‎08-07-2012

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use


alan_s wrote:

I dislike it. I did a similar statin-pushing online test ten years back. At that time I was on lipitor. It looked good for a long life.

 

I did another five years later after I quit lipitor. According to it I should not be here now.

 

I just did this one.

 

Over 10 years

31 people will have a heart attack

69 people will have no heart attack

 

According to that I have a 31% chance of not seeing the next ten years out - all because I am not on a statin and my LDL is higher than they like.

 

I believe it is flawed and skewed heavily towards statin prescription.


I didn't take the test 'cause I don't know my numbers off the top of my head, so I'm not sure exactly what the results show when someone finishes the test, but...just for the record, not everyone who has a heart attack dies as a result.

 

I would venture a guess that many people have heart attacks that are not fatal, but that's just a guess. I know two people in my immediate family had heart attacks and survived, one with no lasting injuries or problems. (The other one actually had two heart attacks and had a bypass shortly after each one; later she developed angina.)

 

But I get your point, Alan, about companies using "tests" to encourage people to take this or that drug. At least, I think that's your point...

Till next time,
maryd98
the diabetic formerly known as 14 and counting, aka Mary
-----------------------------------
Diagnosed T2 July 1998
First A1C (July 1998): 13.6
First BG (July 1998): 537
Latest A1C (July 2014): 5.8
On oral meds for about 9 months after diagnosis
"Just" diet and exercise for 15+ years
alan_s
Total Posts: 14,374
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Registered on: ‎10-30-2009

Re: Mayo clinic online risk assessment for heart attack & statin use


14andcounting wrote:

But I get your point, Alan, about companies using "tests" to encourage people to take this or that drug. At least, I think that's your point...


Yep. You got it :smileyhappy:

Cheers, Alan, Type 2, d&e metformin 2000mg, Australia.
Everything in Moderation - Except Laughter.
There is nothing I could eat I like more than my eyes.
Type 2 Diabetes - A Personal Journey (latest: It Must Be OK - It's Sugar-Free! Wrong!)
Born Under a Wandering Star (Latest: Casablanca)